Evidence-based Selection Planning

Click here to view ESP User Guides.

Evidence-based Selection Planning - ESP brings the art of Baker & Taylor’s collection development expertise together with the science of collectionHQ’s data analytics, to create a decision support system integrated with Title Source 360. ESP helps public libraries select the right current and pre-published titles in the right quantities for their communities.

Ranking

ESP’s powerful Ranking tool harnesses the same Machine Learning methods that drive Apple’s Siri, Google’s Assistant, and the recommendation engines used at Netflix and Amazon to predict how current and forthcoming titles will perform in the future. Predictions are drawn by analyzing key data points about each title such as the author's past performance, the BISAC Subject performance, how the author has performed in this BISAC Subject Group, reviews on the title, demand, and many more data points.





Distribution

ESP’s Distribution component recommends how many of each title to buy and how to share those titles across library branches based on local circulation evidence. ESP understands that every community is different and empowers you to create unique distribution goals, such as minimum and maximum quantities, to meet the needs of each branch.

In order for you to have access to ESP functionality in Title Source 360, your organization must be ESP Service Enabled and you must be assigned ESP user access. For more information on subscribing to ESP, please contact your Baker & Taylor Sales Consultant or collectionHQ Account Manager. If you don’t know who to contact, please call us at 800-775-1800 or send us an email at DL-CHQSales@baker-taylor.com.

Assigning User Access
 

You must have ESP Admin user rights to assign ESP access to other members of your team. To assign user access, select USERS from the Admin drop-down field:


 
Select a user name and click on the Function Type link under Additional User Information:



Select the ESP Access option and then click Save:



ESP Access now appears as a Function Type under Additional User Information:



Click Save to confirm your changes.

 

Cart Submission for ESP Scores

When users create carts in Title Source 360, they can submit that cart to ESP for ESP Ranking. ESP gives each title in the cart a value from 0 to 10, indicating how well the title is likely to perform. An ESP score of 10 indicates that the title is predicted to be a top circulating title, whereas an ESP score of 0 indicates that the title is unlikely to achieve any circulation.
 
To submit a cart for ESP Ranking, add titles to a cart then select ESP Submission from the Cart Actions drop-down field:



Next, select the Ranking option on the pop up screen and click Submit:



You will receive a message notifying you that this cart has been submitted for ESP Ranking. 



Click Close Window.

When a cart is returned from the ESP Process, you will receive an alert similar to the one below:



Carts that have been submitted to ESP Ranking will be moved immediately to the ESP folder, which can be accessed by selecting Manage Carts from the Carts drop-down field, and then selecting the ESP cart folder:



If submission for ESP Ranking has been successful, the following icon will be displayed next to the cart in the Status column:



Click on a cart name to open that cart and view the ESP scores. Two ESP scores (a Category score and a BISAC Subject score) appear next to each title indicating how well the title is likely to perform.

If a title has a Category score of close to 10, ESP expects that title to be a top circulating title compared to all titles within that Category in your library's collection. Titles will fall into one of the following Categories:
          Adult Fiction
          Adult Non-Fiction
          Teen/YA Fiction
          Teen/YA Non-Fiction
          Juvenile Fiction
          Juvenile Non-Fiction

If a title has a BISAC Subject score of close to 10, ESP expects that title to receive high circulation, comparable to the best circulating works within that BISAC group.

For example, a book on accounting might achieve an ESP Adult Non-Fiction Category score of 2 as it is not expected to perform as well as high-performing titles in the Adult Non-Fiction Category, such as cook books by celebrity chefs, which may receive a Category score of close to 10. The same accounting book might achieve an ESP BISAC Subject score of close to 10, as it is expected to perform as well as the top performing accounting books in the library. 

Note: ESP scores are not included in Quick View. If you are displaying this view, select DISPLAY ENHANCED VIEW above the grid to display the ESP scores.



 
Select ESP BISAC Score or ESP Category Score from the Sort By drop-down field to view the titles in order of the associated ESP score:



Click on the ESP score icons to view general information regarding how the ESP scores are determined and how well the title is likely to circulate based on the ESP scores. A pop-up window will display:

Cart Submission for ESP Ranking with Distribution

If this option is enabled for your organization, you can submit carts for Ranking with Distribution. The ESP Ranking with Distribution process provides the ranking scores and advises how many copies of each title should be purchased, including the ideal distribution among your library branches. Please note that available funding is not considered in this process. 
 
ESP uses a complex, proprietary algorithm consisting of the library’s circulation evidence and multiple title metrics to determine the recommended purchase quantity and placement throughout the library’s branches.

To submit a cart for distribution, select ESP Submission from the Cart Actions drop-down field:



Next, select Ranking with Distribution and then click Submit: Select Use ESP Cart Management to go through the ESP distribution screens, or leave unselected to skip the distribution process and proceed automatically. Click Submit. 



If you selected the cart management option, you will be taken to the ESP distribution menus (see collectionHQ ESP documentation for further details).
 
When a cart is returned from the ESP process, you will receive an alert similar to the one below:                                                                                                                                             



You can then review the cart. The quantities of the titles to be purchased per library branch can be viewed in the QTY (Quantity) column within the cart grid and can be changed as needed. Please note, only the branches that, based on evidence of demand and adjustments made in the distribution screens, will have a grid line. Branches that do have recommended quantities will not appear in the grid. Additionally, other grid options, such as Collection Code and Fund Code, will not be populated. Please see below for best practice procedures so that all grid menus are populated when the cart is returned from the ESP process.



ESP has been updated to remove most restrictions that previously applied to organizations with complex grids. ESP can now use your existing Grid Templates to pre-populate your entire Grid Distribution prior to submission for ESP Ranking with Distribution. ESP will use your grid information to determine which branches will need copies of the items residing in a cart, as well as the number of items projected for each location.
 
 

Grid Template Best Practices

General tip: If you’d like the grid to contain every branch, even in cases where the title would receive no copies during the ESP process, please use a template that includes every branch. This will make the process of adding copies more efficient, as you will simply add a quantity to any branch with a zero quantity. Once you are happy with the chosen titles and the quantities, finalize the cart prior to downloading it to your automation system or submitting it for ordering by using Cart Actions: Delete Zero Quantity Titles/Grid Lines.
 

Best Practice for libraries with additional grid menus, such as fund codes, shelf locations, collection codes, item types, etc.

Example template for a cart where the additional data points will be the same for each branch:



Please note: If a template is applied that only includes a sub-set of all of the branches, any branches not included in the template that ESP determines should receive copies will be included with a grid line, with only the branch and quantity values populated (other grid menu values will not be populated).
 
One-line template—only branches that ESP determines should receive copies will be represented:

Example template for a cart where the additional data points will vary for one or more branches; all branches must be in the template:



Libraries with existing templates: Existing grid templates will work with the ESP process. The only exception to this is if ESP introduced two new grid menus to your grids, for ESP Branch and ESP Collection. New templates and a new ESP Marc download profile will be needed in this situation. Please contact us for more details, if needed.

Copying ESP Carts

ESP data will be retained when you copy an ESP cart. You can opt to remove the ESP data from your copied carts on the Create Copy of Cart screen by selecting Remove. The option to Copy the ESP data to your new cart is selected by default.

Sharing ESP Carts

You can share carts as desired. Ranking and Distribution will be retained for each user ID, and they will operate with the same functionality as all other shared carts.

ESP Frequently Asked Questions

 

What is ESP?

Evidence-based Selection Planning (ESP) uses circulation evidence in collectionHQ to provide a decision support system for Title Source 360 and collectionHQ customers.

ESP helps Title Source 360 customers select titles and quantities of those titles for purchase by predicting the performance of a title, either in the customer’s library or across a group of peer libraries in a selected geographical region. 

An ESP score lets you compare the predicted circulation of a title over the next 12 months against the top performing titles within both that category and BISAC Subject area. A score of 10 indicates that a title is expected to circulate like your top circulating titles, and therefore requires a greater number of copies to satisfy the demand. Lower scores show that fewer copies are required, but that there is still demand.

This scoring provides you with authoritative, evidence-based  information to help you choose the optimal number of copies to purchase.


How do titles receive ESP ranking scores and distribution?

Once a Title Source 360 user ID is activated with ESP, the user creates carts of titles and submits them to ESP for either Ranking or Ranking with Distribution. Within minutes, ESP scores the titles, determines the quantity of each title to be purchased, and distributes these throughout the library’s branches. The completed cart appears in the ESP folder in Title Source 360.


How does ESP determine title scores?

For each title in the cart, ESP looks at circulation within the past 12 months and makes a prediction about the circulation in the next 12 months by comparing the title to the best-circulating titles in the Category and the BISAC Subject area.

ESP looks at many data points for each title. Below are a few examples:

• How popular has that author been for you, both in recent months and historically?

• The number of books the author has written

• The popularity of the BISAC Subject at your library

• The popularity of the author at the library within the BISAC Subject that this books is in

• The popularity of the publisher of the book

• The popularity of the publisher of the book in the BISAC Subject for this book

• Is this book in any Baker & Taylor Continuation/Standing Orders, and how popular have these been at your library?

• The number of copies of this work that have been on order with Baker & Taylor (both library and retail orders)

• How many reviews has the title received from major review sources?

ESP’s sophisticated machine-learning algorithms work out the relationships and trends between all of these data points and can then make predictions about how well these books are expected to perform. Because ESP is looking at the trends within your own data, the predictions are based on what actually happens within your library, and ESP will adapt over time if these trends change.

How long does ESP take to score a cart?

Carts should be scored and returned to you in less than 2 minutes, although this may vary depending on the number of titles in the cart and the number of carts currently being processed. If a cart has not been returned within 2 hours, please contact Tech Support at tech.support@baker-taylor.com.


How does ESP distribute titles among library branches?

ESP uses a complex proprietary algorithm consisting of the library’s circulation evidence and multiple title metrics to determine the recommended purchase quantity and placement throughout the library’s branches. 


Who do I contact to receive help or training for our ESP service?

Please contact your Baker & Taylor representative or collectionHQ account manager. Technical help is available at Tech.Support@baker-taylor.com.